Rates scare campaign loses its interest

The following article by AWU National Secretary Bill Shorten is the fourth in a five part election commentary series appearing in the Sunday Herald Sun in the lead up to the 2004 Federal Election due to be held on 9 October.

It is becoming clear that an interest rates scare campaign is all that the Coalition has left for the final two weeks before polling day.

In fact, future interest rate outcomes in Australia will be the same, regardless of which side wins the Federal election.

All the economic experts and commentators agree that a Labor or Coalition victory will make no difference to interest rate movements.

All 14 financial institutions that took part in the Reuters survey reported yesterday agreed that a change of government would make absolutely no difference to future rate movements.

Macquarie Bank's interest rate specialist Rory Robertson is already on the record as saying, "I think that under any government interest rates will remain low."

A month into the campaign, I think many voters now want Latham's health and education policies, but they also want to be confident there is no risk.

This is why John Howard is increasingly resorting to the interest rates scare tactics.

The truth is that the Reserve Bank of Australia sets interest rates independent of any federal government.

The Reserve's decision is based on economic circumstances determined partly by government policy, but more so by prevailing international economic conditions.

Latham has committed to surplus budgeting and a reduction of net debt in each year of the next term as well as cutting government spending and revenue as a share of the economy.

Latham's sound financial management combined with Labor's fully-costed election program, are in fact likely to exert more downward pressure on interest rates than Howard's multi-billion dollar orgy of uncosted pork-barrelling.

Apart from the interest rates scare tactics, Howard stepped up the union bashing last week. But I think this will have little electoral impact. I meet Australian voters all the time who think people deserve a fair go at work. Whatever their views of unions, most people agree that we need a decent workplace system with a strong independent umpire.

Recent revelations about James Hardie's mistreatment of asbestos victims reinforce the view that unions are necessary.

If Howard wants to continually denigrate the two million working people who are union members in this country, then it is unlikely to win him support.

I spent some time during the week talking with AWU members who live in Gisborne in the marginal electorate of McEwen, north of Melbourne, where new Labor candidate Jenny Beales is putting in a good fight to oust the sitting Liberal member.

Talking with workers in this typical swinging electorate, it became clear to me that if Labor can communicate with people about the safety of the their interest rates policy, then there is little reason left to stop a Labor victory on October 9.